AI Capex-vs-Revenue Gap Explorer
Adjust the growth assumptions behind the 2026 "AI bubble" debate and see in which year — if any — AI revenue catches up with AI infrastructure spending.
About this tool
Our piece on the AI bubble debate centers on one uncomfortable number: hyperscalers are spending an estimated $700B or more a year on AI infrastructure while AI-attributable revenue runs closer to $50–150B. Whether that gap is a temporary, self-correcting investment cycle or a structural problem depends entirely on how fast each side grows from here — and reasonable people disagree.
This tool projects both lines forward from 2026 using growth rates you choose, and shows the year they cross, if they do within the time horizon. It is a simple compounding model built from the estimates in our article, not a forecast — moving the sliders is a way to stress-test the bull case and the bear case yourself, not to predict the future.
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